In 1997, Centocor had a promising drug in Phase II trials and a pharmaceutical company, Schering-Plough, interested in a deal to market it internationally. The only problem was that the drug, a biologic aimed at Crohn disease and rheumatoid arthritis, would be first in the space and thus no historical data existed about the size of the potential market. That number, of course, was key to the company's future.
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Five Things Not to Forget When Forecasting
Forecast models can become complex, but the principles for gathering and vetting data for good predictions should remain basic.
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