Even in Prosperity, Long-Term Investments Are Key

if (n == null) The Scientist 13[15]:18, Jul. 19, 1999 Opinion Even in Prosperity, Long-Term Investments Are Key By: Gerald Dinnen Suddenly many of the old threats to the U.S. economy do not seem very threatening. Inflation is nonexistent. The federal deficit has been eliminated. And--at a time when our gross domestic product, productivity, and disposable income are reaching new heights--other nations we recently worried about competing against have experienced an economic downturn. One key to the resurgence of the U.S. economy has been the rapid growth of new science- and technology-based industries, especially those related to the Internet and biotechnology. In both of these cases, substantial federal and private funding gave rise to innovations that make much of today's growth possible. But future progress in these areas is by no means guaranteed. It will require the same farsighted policies and investments that spawned the current wave of opportunity. Already there are challenges looming that threaten to undermine long-term prospects for growth. With the economy booming, it is critical that U.S. firms, universities, and the federal government do not allow themselves to grow complacent. One emerging challenge in the high-tech arena arises from the very nature of the marketplace. A panel I recently chaired heard from a number of executives who see an ominous trend in the way companies in the information technology field create many of their hot new products. To an unprecedented degree, these companies have abandoned traditional research laboratories in favor of pure product development. When they do need new technology, these companies are more apt to get it by purchasing another firm, or hiring its personnel, than by investing in long-term research. The same executives told us that federal government research investments also are geared to a shorter time frame than in years past. Without sufficient investments in long-term, fundamental research, industry is unlikely to experience the kinds of serendipitous spin-offs that have brought it this far. The most obvious example of such innovation is the Internet, which has changed society in ways that few could imagine even 10 years ago. Many of the important principles that gave rise to the Internet came from defense-related research begun in the 1960s. No one could have thought at the time that work aimed at allowing communication among researchers in far-flung sites could lead to the World Wide Web--which has spurred an explosion of global commerce and communications. If current trends of weak research and development investments continue, however, industry could find itself unprepared for the next wave of change--which may come from more strategically focused institutions abroad. New challenges also are facing the fast-growing field of biotechnology. Driven largely by the rapid proliferation of data produced by the Human Genome Project and other work in gene mapping, the biotech and pharmaceutical industries have rushed headlong into developing new drugs and other therapies. Potential profits are enormous. And as a result, so is the demand for workers skilled in bioinformatics--an emerging field that uses engineering approaches to study the relationship between genes and disease. Workers in such an environment must be well versed in computers and the life sciences. But today these workers are in short supply. Ironically, this comes at a time when many graduates in the pure life sciences are underemployed. To ensure that the nation stays competitive, our universities must do a better job training for the occupational needs of the future, many of which transcend the traditional disciplines of academia. The United States also faces challenges in tapping research to address major national needs outside the high-tech area--such as K-12 education. In contrast to other fields, links between education researchers and educators themselves are not well developed. Better utilization of research related to cognition and learning could improve educational performance and deliver long-term societal benefits. Our panel determined that four factors have kept the United States ahead of the pack in the ability to capitalize on innovations in science and technology: a strong and diverse portfolio of research investments; a favorable environment featuring strong incentives for investors and free movement of ideas and people; a skilled, flexible science and engineering work force; and effective collaboration between academia, industry, and government. Keeping all of these policy pieces in place is difficult. But by adjusting to meet emerging demands--even when times are good--the nation can enhance its ability to reap benefits from scientific and technological advances. Gerald Dinneen is retired vice president for science and technology at Honeywell Inc. He chaired a working group for the Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy of the National Academies of Sciences and Engineering and the Institute of Medicine that produced the report Capitalizing on Investments in Science and Technology.