Global Change: A Challenge And Opportunity For Basic Research

Research Author: THOMAS F. MALONE, pp.13 Date: May 16,1994 For hundreds of millions of years, the changes in global environment that nourish human life have had their natural roots in the interaction of physical, chemical, and biological systems driven by solar energy. Within the last century, however, socioeconomic forces--manifestations of the expanding power of human activity on planet Earth--have emerged as a perturbing influence in that environment, strong enough to seriously deplete stratospheric ozone, to foster ominous changes in climate, and to threaten biodiversity. At present, with the rate at which these socioeconomic forces-- along with structural changes under way within them--are growing, global society is following a trajectory that will lead, by the middle of the next century, to an unsustainable, inequitable, and unstable world. For example: If regional population growth between now and 2050 were to proceed at the rates of the 1990s, world population would grow threefold (from 5 billion to 15 billion). For every person added to the population in the 46 industrial nations, 12 would be added in the 62 poorest and least-developed countries. In 2050, 11 percent of the world's population (in industrial nations) would be generating and consuming 41 percent of the world's economic output, while 50 percent of the people (in the poorest countries) would have to share only 11 percent. The resulting stress on the environment from soaring economic development in some parts of the world would combine with severe stresses from exploding population growth in other parts, thereby jeopardizing the environment's capacity to nourish and sustain human life. The socioeconomic result would clearly be inequitable. It would almost certainly be unstable. In August 1993, several dozen natural scientists, engineers, social scientists, and others gathered at a conference sponsored by Sigma Xi in Research Triangle Park, N.C., to explore ways in which future demographic and economic growth might be modified to change the societal trajectory. The endpoint of the desired trajectory would be a society in which all of the basic needs and an equitable share of human aspirations could be met by successive generations, while maintaining in perpetuity a healthy, physically attractive, and biologically productive environment. The conclusion was reached at the conference that achievement of this goal during the 21st century would require an unprecedented international effort to (1) deepen an understanding of how physical, chemical, biological, and social systems interact to regulate the global environment; (2) stabilize world population; (3) transform an energy- and technology-driven economy into one that is environmentally benign; (4) reduce poverty everywhere; and (5) re-examine societal goals and human behavior in order to give greater emphasis to the quality of life in both industrial and developing countries. The keystone of this effort would be a program aimed at fully utilizing the constant torrent--the "cascade"--of knowledge that drives human progress. In this effort, scientists would be called upon to play a major role. For this cascade largely rushes forth from a process involving discovery (basic research), integration (interdisciplinary collaborations), and dissemination (through formal and informal education) of knowledge concerning the nature and the interaction of matter, energy, living organisms, information, and human behavior. The fountainhead of this cascade--discovery--is the primary mission of basic research and the major concern of the individual investigator. Thus, given its vital role in human progress, a strong case for its support can be made, even in the current period of fiscal austerity. New patterns of interdisciplinary collaborations among physical, biological, and social scientists, engineers, and scholars in the humanities will be imperative to develop the cascade's integrative stream. Revolutionary changes are needed in the educational system to strengthen dissemination. And new modes of communication and cooperation will be necessary among business and industry, governments, and academia to facilitate application of new knowledge. Already, dramatic advances in computer and communications technologies are enabling the fluent exchange of information across the globe--and developments to come are likely to open still more avenues for worldwide cooperation among individuals and institutions. For example, a four-tiered "Global Array of Nested Networks" (GANN) proposed during the Sigma Xi workshop is an innovation that would link individuals, educational institutions, researchers, and policymakers in an interactive communications system geared to both stimulate and apply the flow of new knowledge worldwide. For now, the challenge for the scientific community includes the exercise of leadership in inaugurating an era in which the cascade of knowledge is channeled to change the potentially tragic trajectory that society currently is following. Thomas F. Malone is Distinguished University Scholar at North Carolina State University and director of the Sigma Xi Center in Research Triangle Park, N.C. A summary report of last August's meeting--"International Networks for Addressing Issues of Global Change"--may be obtained by writing: Sigma Xi Center, Box 13975, Research Triangle Park, N.C. 27709.

Global Change: A Challenge And Opportunity For Basic Research

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