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A Checklist For Evaluating Forecasts

Andy Hines, staff futurist at the research firm of Coates and Jarratt Inc. in Washington, D.C., lists several criteria for judging the many predictions that have been and will be made for or around the year 2000 (The Futurist, 29:20-24, November- December 1995): Author: What are the credentials or reputation of the author or institution? Do they have a bias? Are they advocates, enthusiasts, or opponents? Method: Is a formal method such as a Delphi survey -- a polling of experts-used? Assumpt

Andy Hines

Andy Hines, staff futurist at the research firm of Coates and Jarratt Inc. in Washington, D.C., lists several criteria for judging the many predictions that have been and will be made for or around the year 2000 (The Futurist, 29:20-24, November- December 1995):

Author: What are the credentials or reputation of the author or institution? Do they have a bias? Are they advocates, enthusiasts, or opponents?

Method: Is a formal method such as a Delphi survey -- a polling of experts-used?

Assumptions: What are the primary assumptions, the underlying beliefs and attitudes that influence the forecast? Are they stated or implicit?

Time horizon: Is a specific time frame given, or can it be discerned?

The forecasts: What are the specific projections?

Trigger events: Are there guideposts that can be monitored to measure how the forecast is tracking?

Key capabilities: What new capabilities does the forecast project will be made available...

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