Despite Scientist Shortage, Future Ph.D.'s Fear Joblessness

With funding opportunities dwindling in an unpredictable economic climate, graduate students planning to earn their Ph.D.'s in the next two years face a host of uncertainties, according to Betty Vetter, director of the Washington, D.C.-based Commission on Professionals in Science and Technology. Although the National Science Foundation and other agencies are anticipating a shortage of Ph.D. scientists beginning in the mid-1990s, students who will earn their doctorates before then are bracing themselves for competition in a tough job market. The commission predicts that in 1993, approximately 7,300 U.S. citizens will complete Ph.D.'s in the natural sciences. This figure includes approximately 4,500 Ph.D.'s in the life sciences, 1,200 in chemistry, and 675 in astronomy and physics. These predictions, Vetter says, are based on similar figures compiled in recent years: "The numbers have been very steady for the last 10 years, and we don't see any significant change coming soon." Sandra J. Lazzarini, a graduate student in neuroscience at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, is among those 7,300 future scientists who will be thrust into a fragile job market in 1993. She and her peers are about to find out the hard way how different the "real world" is from life as a graduate student. "You can do what you really want to do while you're training," Lazzarini says. As a graduate student, the neuroscientist notes, she doesn't have to worry about funding; moreover, she has plenty of freedom and independence, supportive faculty members to guide her, and many resources. But upon graduation, she will have to vie with hundreds of other young Ph.D.'s for jobs and research support. The widely predicted scientist shortage will not begin to manifest itself until about 1995, Vetter says. By the middle of the decade, two demographic factors will brighten the outlook for new Ph.D.'s seeking jobs in academia, she says. First, because the number of students in college is increasing rapidly, more science instructors will be needed by 1995. Secondly, the number of retiring science and engineering faculty--many of whom "were hired when the baby boomers were in college," according to Vetter--will rise sharply by 1995, which will increase demand for Ph.D.'s to fill academic positions. On the industrial side, Vetter says, "demand for research is dependent on the economy. If the state of the economy is good, demand [for Ph.D. scientists] will exceed supply by the end of the century. If we're in a depression, this won't be the case. It's all a question of need and demand, and demand is need plus money." Patrick J. Kelly, who is completing his Ph.D. in molecular biology from the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, and who wants to work in industry, anticipates that the job market will be competitive in the next year or two, when he expects to receive his Ph.D. In order to beat out the other contenders in the job market, he says, "you either have to do something others don't do or be really good at something everyone does." Kelly hopes that his area of research, temperature-gradient gel electrophoresis, is sufficiently unique to make him attractive to prospective employers. "I think 1993 is going to be a good time" for scientists seeking employment, Vetter says. "But if it's not, don't be discouraged at the moment, because things will be looking up shortly. The mid-nineties will definitely see improvements." Lazzarini, for her part, is remaining upbeat. She'd like to land a faculty position in a research institution that trains graduate students and postdocs after completing a postdoctoral fellowship "with someone whose research is respectable, interesting, and exciting." Although many of the beginning neuroscientists she knows haven't yet landed academic positions, Lazzarini says there is cause for optimism for those hoping to find jobs in the next couple of years. While neuroscience historically has been taught as part of other scientific disciplines, several universities are now beginning to create neuroscience departments, which should open up some opportunities, she notes. At the University of Massachusetts, for example, the neuroscience department was created just five years ago with faculty from the departments of psychology, biochemistry, computer science, biology, and zoology. Lazzarini is already beginning to network in anticipation of the end of graduate school, even though her doctorate is still a couple of years away. "I read the neuroscience literature, see who's doing what and where, and then try to meet people at academic conferences," she says. But that won't help her get funding, which she expects will be "the most frightening" challenge she'll have to face. She laments that the National Institutes of Health is currently funding only a fraction of the grant proposals it receives, even if the proposals are outstanding. The situation "will probably get worse, especially with further education cuts expected," Lazzarini says. "But I'm hopeful about the future. You have to be if you really love what you do. You just put everything you have into your work." Getting funding has a lot to do with getting a faculty position in neuroscience, according to Lazzarini: "It's so competitive. You need a grant to get a job. Without a grant, your chances are pretty low." Although she says she hasn't thought much about the people with whom she will be competing for faculty positions, she expects that much of her competition will come from candidates from bigger-name schools, those who published more than she did, and those who worked in more productive labs. Molecular biologist Kelly would like to get an industrial postdoc and then a permanent industrial position in a pharmaceutical or biotechnology firm. An academic postdoc is his second choice if he's unsuccessful in getting an industrial appointment. "My perception of what's happening in industry is that companies are hiring one stellar Ph.D. and then 15 master's-level scientists to do the work," Kelly says. "There's one central brain and a lot of hands. Let's face it, pharmaceutical companies are in business to make money, not hire Ph.D.'s." Kelly is somewhat cynical about the widely predicted need for scientists in the next 10 years. "The scientist shortage gets a lot of press, [but it's unclear whether] there's a huge amount of opportunity," he says, citing recent news accounts that have reported growth in the biotechnology industry to be slower than expected. The main reason that Kelly is not planning to consider an academic career track is the dismal funding climate for academic scientists. "Academia used to be the setting where a scientist would have the most freedom; you could choose your own research," he says. Because of today's stiff competition for grants, Kelly says, academic scientists are finding that they have to pursue the type of research projects that funding institutions are interested in supporting. "So now you really don't have freedom." Kelly sees two basic perks in industry. "The first is the opportunity to make more than 20 grand a year, and the second is you don't have to worry about funding." The Georgia Tech student plans to begin his job search six to nine months before he completes his Ph.D. The process may take longer for him than for others because his wife, who is finishing an MBA degree in science and management, will also be looking for a new position in a new market, he says. His basic plan is to write letters to prospective employers in industrial labs. Unlike Lazzarini, Kelly hasn't had the opportunity to attend conferences at which he could network in person. Murray Stackhouse, a Ph.D. student in radiation biology at Colorado State University in Fort Collins, is looking to national laboratories as prospective employers. For job-seekers in radiation biology, a subspecialty within cellular and molecular biology, Stackhouse says, "it's really important who your adviser is and who they know." An adviser's good connections can translate into job opportunities for his or her students, says Stackhouse, who expects to graduate in 1992. Stackhouse's impression, like Lazzarini's, is that getting a postdoc will be easier than getting a permanent position. He thinks he'll be competing for a postdoctoral fellowship in a national lab against scientists who have already completed one postdoc. Like Kelly, Stackhouse is glad he won't have to worry about funding, "where the real competitiveness is," if he achieves his goal of finding a job in a national lab. But he doesn't think it's going to be easy to succeed. "You don't have to worry as much about funding [in a national lab], but you do have to produce" in order to stay competitive, he says. Eric M. Wilcots, a Ph.D. student in astronomy at the University of Washington, Seattle, believes that he's in a better position than his counterparts doing graduate work in the life sciences. In astronomy, he says, "there are a number of postdoc positions available--but there's also a lot of applicants. However, overall, astronomy is well-funded, with several institutions currently being very well-funded." Wilcots expects that he will have to do a postdoc before looking for a faculty position in a major academic research institution. His dream is to receive a two-year Hubble Fellowship, offered by the Space Science Telescope Institute, based at Johns Hopkins University (Funding Briefs, The Scientist, Oct. 29, 1990, page 24). Recipients of this prestigious grant can take the funding along to a postdoc anywhere in the United States. That's something that would really distinguish him from other students, says Wilcots, another student expecting to graduate in 1993. Wilcots's career challenge will be "finding a tenure-track position at a place I really want to go that is well-funded and does a lot of astronomy." Of course, he says, "finding funding is going to be an ongoing challenge." Unlike Wilcots, Elizabeth A. Murphy, a Ph.D. student in physics at the University of Rochester, is more interested in teaching than in doing research. After completing her Ph.D. sometime in 1993, Murphy wants to go straight to a tenure-track faculty position at a small, liberal arts college, like Colby College in Waterville, Maine, which she attended as an undergraduate. If these plans don't pan out, she is willing to consider a nontenure-track position, or even an industrial research postdoc. A liberal arts college appeals to Murphy because she's most interested in teaching rather than doing research. While she will have to conduct research and obtain funding, these requirements will be on a much smaller scale at a liberal arts college than at a major research institution, and she won't have to have funding already in hand when she applies for positions. Murphy's impression is that many scientists in academic research positions have to juggle too many responsibilities and that their teaching duties are the first thing to fall by the wayside. "It's hard to do the amount of research a university expects" while being a good teacher, she says. The physicist acknowledges that she has no handle on how long her job search might last. "It's hard to say" what type of job market she'll be entering, she says. "There's a lot of abstract statistics claiming [the job market is] wide open, but that doesn't really appear to be true based on what I've seen." Lisa Simon is a freelance writer based in Philadelphia.

Despite Scientist Shortage, Future Ph.D.'s Fear Joblessness

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