Scientist's Supply by Discipline

The smaller and more specialized the scientific field being studied, the less predictable are changes in the factors that affect demand, such as scientific and technological advances, shifts in Federal funding priorities, and industrial research and development (R&D) spending. Small changes in the total supply of scientists and engineers can mask significant adjustment within and among fields. The total number of Ph.D.s awarded in science and engineering rose by 7 percent between 1980 and 1985. During this period, physics Ph.D. awards rose 10 percent and mathematics Ph.D.s declined almost as much. Both were overshadowed, however, by an increase in computer science Ph.D.s of 35 percent. The relationship between fields, especially mathematics and computer science, is critical for interpreting these degree trends. Demographic trends play very little, if any, role in the supply of scientists or engineers in individual fields or in one field relative to another. Some demand factors affect all science and engineering, such as the general health of the U.S. industrial economy and the level of Federal R&D funding. Although the national economy may be healthy and the overall demand for scientists and engineers strong, a downturn in the oil industry will quench the demand for petroleum engineers. Graduate enrollments and degree awards are highly responsive to small shifts in Federal education and research support. In academic sciences such as mathematics, the life sciences, and astronomy, Federal Government support dominates. In industry-oriented fields, students respond quickly to changes in the job market. Breadth of employment brings stability to a field. Chemical and mechanical engineers work in many different industries and can move among them. Petroleum engineers, on the other hand, depend almost exclusively on the petroleum industry for jobs. Diversity of employment may also tend to encourage broader education and a more versatile and mobile work force. Labor markets adjust to supply-demand gaps. The Federal role in alleviating potential shortages of technical personnel appears limited to assistance for education and retraining. Shortages and surpluses are most likely to arise at the level of the specialty or skill rather than the field, and are more likely at the level of the field than for science and engineering as a whole. While petroleum geologists are currently oversupplied, hydrologists are in demand to address rising concern over groundwater supplies and quality. The labor market adjusts to supply-demand gaps in two ways: individuals already in the work force change jobs and, after a lag, the number of degrees awarded in that field changes. Students are likely to shift specialities within a field before they shift fields, and more likely to shift fields than opt out of science or engineering altogether. Recent engineering graduates seem well able to shift to meet new challenges; scientists are flexible to a lesser degree because of their longer and more specialized professional training. The scope of fields and the boundaries between them are constantly changing. Whether a researcher in laser optics should be counted as a physicist or an engineer is a matter of judgment rather than hard-and-fast definition. Categories tend to lag the reality of emerging disciplines. The level of women’s participation in science and engineering varies significantly by field. Women have made gradual gains over the past 15 years in science and engineering, though increases have slowed in recent years. In 1985, their share of science and engineering Ph.D.s declined for the first time, although the decrease was all in the social sciences. Gender-stereotyped career expectations and differential treatment of women in traditionally male fields continue to deter their participation. Blacks, Hispanics, and American Indians are affected by a variety of socioeconomic factors that lead to weak academic preparation for a science or engineering major and difficulty remaining in the science and engineering pipeline. Black participation has been chronically depressed in science and engineering. They are more underrepresented than Hispanics or American Indians and have made fewer gains over the past 5 years. Despite their minority status, Asian-Americans have attained a strong presence in science and engineering and continue to make rapid gains. The high profile and rapid gains of Asian scientists and engineers are skewed towards engineering, the mathematical and computer sciences, chemistry, and physics. The increasing presence of foreign nationals is most visible in academic engineering. A paucity of American Ph.D. engineers has made universities particularly dependent upon new foreign Ph.D.s. to fill faculty teaching and research positions. The high profile of foreign nationals among engineering graduate students, teaching assistants, and faculty raises questions about the quality of teaching in, and attractiveness of engineering for, American students. Excerpted from Preparing for Science and Engineering Careers: Field Level Profiles, published by the Science, Education, and Transportation Program of the Office of Technology Assessment, US. Congress. Copies of the paper can be opbtained from the OTA. Washington. D.C. 20510.

Scientist's Supply by Discipline

The Scientist Staff

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