A New Season of West Nile Virus

Two years do not a trend make, but it does seem that with each passing summer, the number of human West Nile virus cases tends to decline. That said, there is no reason to relax. No one can predict reliably from year to year whether this, or any other mosquito-borne viral illness, might come back to infect humans, says Jim Miller, West Nile coordinator for New York City. "West Nile has been well documented since it was introduced here two years ago. It's a totally new virus in this part of the w

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Many factors affect the spread of West Nile: which particular mosquito species are infected, weather conditions, rain--especially conditions that cause areas to flood and then dry up again--and how much pesticide is sprayed. This year, epidemiologists are on alert in all 48 contiguous states, and some believe the virus will spread and become endemic, though not necessarily severe, throughout the United States and the Americas.

"There are no natural barriers to the spread of this virus in the U.S., so it is anticipated it will spread across the United States and down into Central and South America," says Margo Brinton, a professor of biology at Georgia State University. "On the edge of the spread, where new individuals will be infected, there will be a lot of birds ... and mammals [dying], and there will be human cases." The good news is that in regions where the virus has been active, ...

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