Scientific Network Tracks Earth's Hazards

WASHINGTON—”A frightening noise and then a blast of wind hit us, and we saw fire falling from the sky.” That was one of the many descriptions that reached the Scientific Event Alert Network (SEAN) after Ruiz, a volcano in Colombia, blew up Nov. 13, 1985. Peaceful for 140 years, Ruiz erupted and killed more than 22,000 people. Only three volcanoes have taken more lives; in contrast, Mount St. Helens, which got far more attention, is blamed for only about 60 deaths. But the scientists who maintain SEAN (pronounced say-on) aren’t only interested in geological “superstars” like Mount St. Helens or ultra-catastrophic events like the Ruiz eruption. Nestled in the inner recesses of the Smithsonian’s Museum of Natural History, SEAN has gathered information on 205 of the world’s volcanoes, as well as meteorites and fireballs. Its information comes not just from news accounts, but also from the more than 1,000 correspondents who report their observations from around the globe. In other words, whenever Mother Earth burps, SEAN wants to know. Increasingly, so do many other scientists whose attention has been focused on global climate changes. With the forthcoming Decade of Hazard Reduction—an international program to reduce death and destruction by natural catastrophes “there seems to be a lot of interest in the global aspects of volcanoes,” says Tom Simkin, editor of the network’s monthly SEAN Bulletin. That increased interest has translated into more work for SEAN, where the number of reports has doubled in the past decade. Although the bulletin’s information ranges from sloppy to good,. says Norman G. Banks, program leader for the U.S. Volcano Early Warning and Disaster Assistance Program, it has the advantage of being available up to a year earlier than might be the case in a refereed journal. SEAN also puts the information in other journals and electronic bulletin boards. “Our most important tool is our network of scientific correspondents in the field,” says Lindsay McClelland, SEAN geologist. Last May, when the Reykjanes Ridge started to rumble ominously 500 kilometers off the coast of Iceland, that country’s meteorological office shot off a telegram to SEAN. “We immediately began making phone calls asking if anyone was in the area,” recalls McClelland. The U.S. Navy responded, sending aircraft to the spot to drop sonobuoys to measure seismic activity and devices that transmitted temperature readings as they sank through the water column. “There is some real-time support,” says Banks, who will exchange information with SEAN while at an active site. “It’s a very useful thing to the scientific community as a whole.” The idea for such a network arose during the 1960s, when biologists flocked to study a new island that had appeared off Iceland. Weather watchers were also eager to keep tabs on such natural phenomena, in part because volcanoes can lead to lightning storms that endanger aircraft. “One of the first things we learned was the importance of finding out quickly what has happened in the past,” recalls Simkin. SEAN began to compile a database of volcanic histories, and, in 1981, it published a book of tables and charts classifying the types of volcanoes and detailing volcanic activity for the past 10,000 years. “It’s a first point in a lot of research projects,” says Simkin. “A much dog-eared volume,” adds Banks. The database will soon be available to scientists with personal computers, and the U.S. Geological Survey has modified its related database so the two are compatible. In addition, SEAN recently published a 650-page volume, Global Volcanism: 1975-198S, that organizes SEAN data geographically and chronologically. SEAN also contributed three interactive computers to the Smithsonian’s new traveling exhibit about volcanoes. Thus, visitors can read the SEAN Bulletin, query the database, or view topographic and satellite maps, pictures, and animations of volcanoes. “The viewer quickly realizes that not all volcanoes are nicely shaped cones,” says Simkin. “And much of the programming that was done for it will help us to interface by modem with scientists who want to use the database.” Lewis Branscomb, a former Sigma Xi president, “AAAS has a beautiful building in downtown Washington, but it does things in a very Washing- ton way: It assembles panels of experts and issues reports. And Sigma Xi has chapters in places that the academy has never heard of. “Sigma Xi is one of the few societies that takes undergraduate education seriously. And its local chapters put it in a unique position to promote an issue like improved science education.” Welcome Mat Out Society officials say that the move to North Carolina will help them achieve their goals by immersing them in an atmosphere already brimming with academic, government, and private research laboratories. The commercial arm of the Research Triangle Foundation is giving Sigma Xi $200,000 to ease the cost of the move, and local unversity chapters at Duke, North Carolina, and North Carolina State are prepared to offer whatever help is needed. Such cooperation is a welcome change from the present situation, say society officials. “Nobody was doing it for us in New Haven, neither Yale nor the city” says Sigma Xi board member John Sommer, a policy analyst at the National Science Foundation. “On the other hand, the welcome mat is out for us in North Carolina, and there’s a lot of excitement about our arrival.” Adds Patricia Morse, the current president of Sigma Xi and a marine biologist at Northeastern University, “we’ve had a lot of successful programs, but they never got off the ground in New Haven because the financial resources just weren’t there. Sometimes you have to separate yourself from one university in order to take advantage of resources that are available from other sources.” One of the biggest challenges facing the society is paying for everything it wants to do. The long list includes a new program of visiting Sigma Xi scholars, modeled after a similar effort at the nearby National Center for the Humanities. Morse and others expect to strengthen existing links with private foundations and the federal government, and they predict that those outside sources, when added to a revitalized membership base, will boost annual revenue beyond the current $4.5 million. But some society veterans are less sanguine. “The idea that you can go out and do whatever you want to, because it’s fun or because it’s the right thing to do, is just crazy,” says Gordon Carson, an industrial engineer who resigned from the board earlier this year after a decade as treasurer. “There are no funds to do any of these things until you go out and raise them, and that’s never as easy as it sounds.” Board member Richard Partch, a chemistry professor at Clarkson University, is troubled by the society’s decision to adopt a deficit budget this year, one that will be balanced only after drawing on the interest from the society’s endowment fund and through cost savings to be. achieved during the year. “We’ve allowed ourselves to take money from our endowment in each of the past five years and use it to meet operating expenses,” he says. “That may have been okay for a special situation, like the centennial year, but we shouldn’t be doing it every year. Carson and some others also feel that the society is making a mistake by deemphasizing its traditional role as an honorary society. “There’s plenty for an honorary society to do,” he notes. “We need to do a better job of recognizing effective scientists, through awards and prizes. And we could certainly do more to support the efforts of local officers at each chapter and club.” Danger Of Erosion The effect of the move on the society’s magazine is a major concern for society leaders. While most are confident that sufficient talent exists in North Carolina to fill vacancies on the staff and the advisory board of American Scientist, editorial board chairman Brian Skinner, a Yale geologist, feels that the society has paid scant attention to the intangible features that shape the publication. “There’s a long and carefully developed relationship of trust between the editorial staff and the people that they turn to for advice, review, and guidance on manuscripts,” says Skinner. “There’s a danger of that being eroded, and of taking a long time to build it back up.” Skinner is also bothered by the secrecy surrounding the society’s decision to move, a process in which he and the rest of the editorial board were left in the dark. “It was presented to us as a fait accompli,” he says. “It would have been much healthier to have talked about it openly. It’s certainly not the best way to gain support for a decision with such important consequences.” For everyone involved, there is a recognition that the society is embarking on a treacherous course with few guideposts. “I’m concerned because I see it becoming an advocacy society, and I just don’t think that it will succeed in that role,” says Carson, a member of Sigma Xi since 1931. “Sigma Xi doesn’t have enough money to do some of the things that organizations like AAAS and the National Academy already do.” Even its new executive director admits to some sense of trepidation. “It’s not certain that we will succeed,” says Ahearne. “It’s a new step and a different philosophy for the society. But I’m excited by the challenge.”

Scientific Network Tracks Earth's Hazards

Interested in reading more?

Become a Member of