The monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus)WIKIMEDIA, RICHIEBITSIt isn’t easy being a butterfly these days. A recent study authored by researchers in the U.K. suggests that several drought-sensitive species could suffer regional extinction if climate change and habitat fragmentation continue unabated. And a slew of papers on dwindling monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) disagree as to the causes and the extent of that species’ decline.
The study of U.K. butterflies, which was published Monday (August 10) in Nature, modeled future population fluctuations of six species that suffered significant collapses after a 1995 drought sapped the region. The species—which include the speckled wood, the large skipper, and the ringlet—will go locally extinct by 2100 as droughts become more common and habitat more fragmented, the researchers predicted. “The prognosis is quite bleak,” study coauthor Tom Oliver, an ecological modeler at the National Environment Research Council’s Centre for Ecology & Hydrology in Wallingford, U.K., told Science. Key to preserving these butterfly species is curbing climate change—with a 2°C (3.6°F) rise in global air temperatures serving as the breaking point—and smartly managing habitats so as to maintain physical links between suitable butterfly niches.
Meanwhile, ...
