Defense Giants Face Post-Cold War Research Challenge

Editor's Note: Now that the Cold War is history, it's clear that the United States' mighty defense and aerospace firms increasingly will be pursuing profit in areas other than the development of military weaponry. According to the newsletter Science Watch--published by the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) in Philadelphia--the effectiveness with which these corporations refocus their product-development attention from swords to plowshares is likely to depend greatly on their basic scientific research capabilities. To gain insights on the research strengths of nine defense and aerospace giants, the newsletter undertook a study of their 1981-92 journal citation records. Following is Science Watch's report (4[1]:1-2, 1993), reprinted here with permission of the newsletter and ISI. Many defense and aerospace firms in the United States and other nations are quickly discovering what it takes to survive in a post-Cold War world--and it's not business as usual. As a wave of articles in financial and trade publications is telling us, many defense contractors have responded to slackening demand by selling off peripheral or weak business lines (often to their stronger competitors); by attempting to redirect their military manufacturing capabilities to civilian projects; and, generally, by downsizing. To twist a familiar phrase, defense companies are starting to worry and learning how not to love the bomb so much. During these times of turbulent transition, each defense company will be scrutinizing its scientific and technological base to determine how best to adapt to the new environment. While aircraft and weapons manufacturers are quintessential technology shops, technology is to some degree dependent on basic research and scientific expertise. The research activities of a firm may be only partly--or at times even poorly--reflected in the pages of the journals indexed by ISI for its Science Citation Index, especially if they represent proprietary knowledge or classified work that may be actively kept from public view. But even a partial picture may be sufficient to indicate areas of significant activity and strength. With these limitations in mind, Science Watch reviewed the publication records of nine leading U.S.-based aerospace and defense contractors to assess their research performance over the last decade, to determine their relative rankings, and to identify areas of strength for each. All journal articles by these companies, published between January 1981 and June 1992, were extracted from ISI's Science Indicators Database, and their citation counts were tabulated. The results of this analysis show that Rockwell International Corp. and Lockheed Corp. stand out as the research leaders in the group. Papers from both companies attained the highest citations-per-paper averages (reflected in the citation impact column on the accompanying table), and their citation impact scores rose steadily since the period 1983-87. General Dynamics Corp., by contrast, achieved a relatively low, albeit consistent, altitude in terms of citation impact. The table provides further statistics, such as the percentage of papers published from 1981 through June 1992 that remained uncited by the end of June 1992, and the percentage of a firm's papers cited 25 times or more. Both tend to correlate with the ranking by citation impact. For example, Rockwell International, first in citation impact, exhibits the lowest percentage of uncited papers and the highest percentage of papers cited 25 times or more. General Dynamics, on the other hand, the lowest ranked in the group in impact, exhibits the highest percentage of uncited papers and the lowest percentage of highly cited papers. Although all nine companies operate within the same business sector, their research activities differ significantly. And since different fields of research show different average citation rates, the rank order of the companies in terms of citation impact should be viewed as only a partial indicator of research strength. To the extent that any company publishes exclusively or disproportionately in a low-impact area, such as aerospace engineering, it would suffer in comparison to a firm that is active in one or more higher- impact fields, such as condensed-matter physics. What is perhaps the most telling scientometric statistic of a company's research strength is how its citations-per-paper record, at whatever level characteristic for its mix of research, changes against itself over time. An examination of the highly cited papers for each company reveals the following: Rockwell International shows significant strength in semiconductor research, especially in studies of gallium- arsenide materials, and in ceramic-based composite materials. Lockheed researchers have been particularly active in exploring the new high-temperature superconductors, as well as in a variety of astrophysical experiments in collab- oration with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and academic institutions. McDonnell Douglas Corp.'s diverse research record includes studies of semiconductor materials, structures, and fabrication techniques; plasma physics; and lithium niobate materials. Martin Marietta Corp. scientists have been focusing on aluminum powder metallurgy technology; surface science topics, such as metal-polymer bonds; and plant science, especially photosynthesis. Raytheon Co. researchers published extensively on metal- organic vapor deposition of thin films. Boeing Co. focused sharply on materials science and X-ray absorption spectroscopic studies of various compounds. Its researchers were also active in knowledge acquisition algorithms for expert systems. Northrop Corp. researchers consistently published papers dealing with pulsed excimer lasers, gyrotrons, and optical storage devices and pattern recognition. Grumman Corp. papers reveal a particular interest in A1- based alloys, in photovoltaic cells, and in fusion research. General Dynamics researchers also explored A1-based alloys, as well as crack propagation in various materials and pattern recognition algorithms. What, overall, are the main areas of research in the defense and aerospace labs? A study of the most frequently cited papers published between 1988-92 reveals the following subjects: condensed-matter physics, especially superconductivity; aspects of semiconductor science, especially GaAlAs/GaAs structures; thin-film preparation techniques; composite materials; optical data storage; and astrophysics. Many pundits predict problems for defense contractors who hope to shift from military to civilian manufacturing. While the challenges are great, the specialized scientific and technological expertise these firms possess remains one of the U.S.'s most valuable assets. If these assets are smartly managed, they may produce significant returns, not just on the military side but on the civilian side of the economy, as well. (ranked by citation impact) RankNamePapers 1981-82Citations 81-82Citation ImpactPercent UncitedPercent cited>25 times 1Rockwell2,56614,7775.7642.365.81 2Lockheed2,53411,9624.7245.304.18 3McDonnell Douglas1,079 3,8803.6252.552.50 4Martin Marieetta 9133,1693.4753.893.27 5Raytheon 4781,3752.8853.142.72 6Boeing1,1243,0122.6856.412.05 7Northrop 350 9082.5954.290.86 8Grumman 4531,0102.2358.501.32 9General Dynamics 389 5281.3668.640.51 Source: Science Watch/ISI's Science Indicators Database, January 1981-June 1992

Defense Giants Face Post-Cold War Research Challenge

The Scientist Staff

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