"It isn't as easy as we thought it was going to be 15 years ago," says Jim Savage, a seismologist with the Menlo Park office of the United States Geological Survey (USGS), which directs earthquake research. "I think it's possible to predict earthquakes, but it will require more basic research before we know for certain."
Now, the leading earthquake prediction experiment in the United States, coordinated by USGS, which involves intense scrutiny of a single California fault, is being reviewed by a panel of independent seismologists who will advise the agency on whether the effort should continue.
Many seismologists say that before focusing on prediction, more studies are needed of fracture zone dynamics, plate tectonics, and other forces thought to cause or contribute to earthquakes. But prediction advocates say their experiments are the best way to gain those basic insights, and they urge USGS not to abandon the effort simply ...
