Earthquake Prediction: Research Funding On Shaky Ground?

When the field of earthquake prediction took off in the mid- 1970s, seismologists had high hopes of finding geologic warning signs that would allow them to issue timely evacuation notices. But after years of inconclusive research, only a determined few of these investigators are still engaged in the effort to predict earthquakes, as federal support shifts to general studies designed to minimize quake aftereffects. "It isn't as easy as we thought it was going to be 15 years ago," says Jim Sav

Tom Abate

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"It isn't as easy as we thought it was going to be 15 years ago," says Jim Savage, a seismologist with the Menlo Park office of the United States Geological Survey (USGS), which directs earthquake research. "I think it's possible to predict earthquakes, but it will require more basic research before we know for certain."

Now, the leading earthquake prediction experiment in the United States, coordinated by USGS, which involves intense scrutiny of a single California fault, is being reviewed by a panel of independent seismologists who will advise the agency on whether the effort should continue.

Many seismologists say that before focusing on prediction, more studies are needed of fracture zone dynamics, plate tectonics, and other forces thought to cause or contribute to earthquakes. But prediction advocates say their experiments are the best way to gain those basic insights, and they urge USGS not to abandon the effort simply ...

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