The Pugwash Conference Turns 30

On July 7 the Pugwash Conference on Science and World Affairs will be 30 years old. Most international institutions serve their original purpose well for 10-15 years and then decline, but continue to linger on. The more successful the institution, the longer it lingers, perhaps in the hopes that its past successes will be repeated. Pugwash seems to be a case in point. It has already begun to fade away, leaving its goal of complete nuclear disarmament still totally unfulfilled. During its lifetime Pugwash has held 36 large conferences—in capitalist, communist and Third World countries—and a number of smaller, specialized symposia. The next conference will be held this August in Austria. Early conferences discussed the consequences of nuclear, chemical and biological warfare, and disarmament and world security; recently, development issues have been added. The participants in the early years were mainly natural scientists, but later social scientists were encouraged to attend. Pugwash has active national groups in a number of countries. International activity is organized by the organization's secretary-general, Martin Kaplan, in Geneva, and by Joseph Rotblat, the former secretary-general, in London. The problem is that Pugwash fails to attract young scientists—a failure that will prove fatal. One reason is that Pugwash has always been an elitist organization. Of the world's 2.5 million research scientists, only about 1,000 have ever been to a Pugwash conference. That's a small number compared with the 500,000 or so scientists in military research and development. Pugwash. has worked on the principle that eminent scientists have considerable influence on governments by their very eminence. If these scientists participate in Pugwash conferences, the argument goes, they will convey the conclusions back to their governments, which will take them into account when formulating policies. That may have been true in the past, particularly when Pugwash contacts were the only ones between East and West. After all, Pugwash began in the midst of the Cold War, in the days of U.S. Secretary of State John Foster Dulles. Undoubtedly, much useful information was channeled to governments through Pugwash. But when there are many points of contact between the two sides, the need for Pugwash largely disappears. And, in today's world, the influence of individual scientists on political leaders is relatively small. The days when some scientists were household names has gone. When scientists work in teams it is hard for individuals to become eminent. Another reason is that Pugwash has shunned publicity. Other organizations with similar objectives, like the International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, believe that mobilizing public opinion is the best, and perhaps the only, way to persuade reluctant politicians to stop the nuclear arms race and negotiate nuclear disarmament. But Pugwash has preferred to work behind the scenes. In this publicity-conscious age, the group seems to have lost its relevance. What Pugwash Accomplished None of this is to deny Pugwash's remarkable successes since the first conference was held in 1957. The need for a conference of competent scientists "to appraise the perils that have arisen as a result of the development of weapons of mass destruction" had been suggested in the famous Russell-Einstein Manifesto, signed by 11 eminent scientists who warned of the perils of nuclear war. It made clear that neither side could win a nuclear war and that there is a very real danger that such a war would exterminate the human race. That first conference drew 22 participants—16 physicists, two chemists, two physicians, one biologist and one lawyer. Most of the physicists were nuclear physicists, possibly an expression of the guilt felt by many in the profession for the atomic destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The topics discussed at the first Pugwash were nuclear energy hazards in war and peace, problems relating to the international control of nuclear energy and the responsibility of scientists. The participants came from 10 countries, including the United States, the Soviet Union and China. The Chinese scientist was the only participant from the Third World. Then, as now, the developing countries did not rate the problems of nuclear war and nuclear disarmament as being much of their business. The statement issued at the end of the first conference warned of the catastrophic consequences of a nuclear world war and explained that the greatest risk of such a war is through the escalation of a war "between two smaller nations" in which "Russia and America might intervene militarily on opposite sides." The need to control the nuclear arms race and achieve nuclear disarmament was emphasized. Pugwash has had some very important successes. It played a significant part in bringing the Americans and North Vietnamese together and ending the war in Vietnam; it played an important role in the negotiation of the 1963 Partial Test Ban Treaty; it organized the debate at the end of the 1960s on anti-ballistic missile systems; and it contributed to the negotiation of the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. The same Pugwash scientists who effectively opposed ABMs in the 1960s, like Richard Garwin, Hans Bethe, and Jerome Weisner, are now actively opposing President Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative. But very little really has changed in 30 years. Participants at the 1986 Pugwash conference also discussed the uncertainties of radiation hazards, the consequences of all-out nuclear war, the nature of nuclear deterrence, the dangers of the global spread of the capabilities to manufacture nuclear weapons, and the responsibilities of scientists and the professional scientific bodies. The world's best brains have been mobilized by Pugwash but have been unable to invent the social and political institutions necessary to achieve a disarmed world. No one will kill Pugwash; its past successes will prevent that. Unless it can find ways to revitalize itself, it will simply fade away. The tragedy is that the task it set itself 30 years ago is still to be done. Who will be left to help scientists realize their social responsibilities? Barnaby, a nuclear physicist by training, is the former director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. His first Pugwash conference was in 1967, at Ronneby, Sweden. His address is Brandreth, Station Rd., Chilbolton, Stockbridge, Hants, S020 6AW, UK.

The Pugwash Conference Turns 30

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