Bird Flu Prevalence Underestimated

Pooled data from H5N1 bird flu studies suggests that the World Health Organization may be underestimating infection and overestimating fatality.

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FLICKR, DANUMURTHI MAHENDRA

To date, the World Health Organization (WHO) reports that 586 people have been infected with H5N1 bird flu worldwide and that 346 of those people have died, for a fatality rate of 59 percent. But a meta-analysis pooling infection data from field studies worldwide, published online today (February 23) in Science, found many less serious cases that would have gone unreported—suggesting that the virus may be more prevalent but less fatal than those numbers suggest.

“It’s something that a lot of virologists have probably suspected: that [H5N1 infections have] been underreported,” said flu virologist John Wood at the United Kingdom’s National Institute for Biological Standards and Control, who was not involved in the research. “It’s a difficult concept to get your head around because H5N1 ...

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