Growth In Federal Scientific Work Force In 1989-93 May Be Offset By Recent Cuts

A National Science Foundation report, scheduled for release this summer, on the demographics of scientists and engineers (S&E) in the federal work force shows a rise in employment of about 6 percent_13 percent among scientists_from 1989 to 1993. But according to various federal officials, these figures may already be outdated, in light of employment cuts that have occurred since the report period or are being proposed by Congress and the Clinton administration. PARING DOWN: H. Ronald Pulliam notes that various Interior agencies are downsizing in response to budget cuts. "This is a period of government downsizing," observes H. Ronald Pulliam, director of the National Biological Service (NBS), a fledgling agency of the Department of the Interior that has already experienced cuts and has been targeted for more. "The Interior will be further decreasing their work force and at the same time increasing efforts in integrating approaches for large-scale studies it will be a real challenge to meet the new scientific requirements." Using data from the federal Office of Personnel Management, the Science Resource Studies (SRS) division of NSF conducted a historical analysis of federal S&E employment. The results of the study are being published in a special report, Federal Scientists and Engineers, 1989-93, scheduled for release in July. The report contains a detailed analysis of various demographic trends, including employment fluctuations, in categories such as federal agency, geographic region, age, ethnicity, and occupation. DETAILING DEMOGRAPHICS: NSF analyst John Tsapogas offers a historical perspective on the changes in the federal work force. An SRS "Data Brief" (Vol. 1995, No. 4, Feb. 27, 1995) by John Tsapogas, a senior analyst, documents some of the broader trends and growth patterns for that five-year period. For example, while agencies like the departments of Agriculture (USDA), Interior, and Health and Human Services increased their hiring of S&E workers, employment in the Department of Defense (DoD) traditionally the largest S&E employer decreased 2.2 percent. On a regional basis, the South Atlantic area which includes Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North and South Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia continued to add to its scientific work force. This region accounted for nearly half the net increase from 65,431 to 70,947 in all federal S&E employment. The Mountain states Arizona, Colorado, Montana, Idaho, Nevada, Utah, and Wyoming experienced almost a 13 percent growth (see accompanying chart). But 1994-95, federal agency officials report, has been a period of considerable reduction in various agencies, including ones that had demonstrated growth earlier. With the new Republican leadership in Congress, some anticipate even more drastic cutbacks over the next few years. NBS, for example, has already been a victim of heavy budget cuts and rescissions on previously allocated money, Pulliam points out. The research agency was established in 1993 by Secretary of the Interior Bruce Babbitt to conduct studies on the nation's biological resources with an aim toward anticipating environmental crises (K.Y. Kreeger, The Scientist, Feb. 7, 1994, page 1). Its scientific staff drawn mostly from the Fish and Wildlife Service and the National Park Service has already been pared to about 1,770 from the original 1,845. Other Interior agencies, like the United States Geological Survey and the Bureau of Mines, have also been proposed for drastic cuts in the 1996 budget appropriations, department officials note. Similar downsizing seems inevitable for numerous other departments and agencies, given the cuts being proposed by Congress and the administration (Science & Government Report, 25[6]:1, April 1, 1995). For example, the House Appropriations Committee subcommittee has suggested a $650 million cut for NSF in the 1996 budget, while the House Budget Committee is eyeing a $500 million paring of NIH. In addition, the Clinton administration, in its Reinventing Government proposal, calls for trimming the National Aeronautics and Space Administration by $5 billion over the next five years, and reports out of Congress indicate even further cuts. Meanwhile, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has seen its 1995 budget appropriation slated for reduction: the House voted for $107 million in cuts, although the Senate approved only $32 million. Despite these recent developments, Tsapogas contends that the information contained in the report "is not obsolete. Things move slowly in the government," unlike the industrial sector, where cutbacks immediately translate into massive layoffs, causing dramatic fluctuations in employment demographics. Changes within the government, he says, are likely "to be more gradual." He stresses, however, that these type of NSF reports offer a historical perspective, and are not meant to make projections about future employment. The 13 percent growth in 1989-93 observed in the Mountain states took place mainly in Colorado, Tsapogas notes, citing a net increase of nearly 900 employees, primarily in the Department of the Interior, DoD, and USDA nationally, the largest employer of government life scientists_as well as the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). "We are fortunate in this community to be in the vicinity of so many government research labs," comments Gordon Gray, the career services director for the University of Colorado in Boulder, calling attention to such potential employers as the National Center for Atmospheric Research, NIST, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in that area. In addition, he says that while his office has not maintained records of employment, "I know that the Park Service and the Bureau of Reclamation have been visible and present" at on-campus recruitment events. But the increased employment within the state has not really translated into a higher number of graduates being hired, Ron Brummett, director of the Colorado School of Mines career center, asserts: "Government employment from our school is very low amounting to an average of 5 per year and that primarily in the state and local, rather than federal, government." He concurs with another finding in the NSF report, that the S&E work force is aging. According to the report, there was a decrease of 5.3 percent in the total number of S&E employees under 35 in the five-year report period (see chart on page 1). "We've certainly seen evidence of that," affirms Brummett. "Graduates get placed less often, and entry-level opportunities are just not seen." Agency officials also confirm the report's findings on age. "The federal work force is getting older," agrees Victor Commisso, a personnel specialist at the Agricultural Research Services of USDA. "The 1960s and 1970s were the growth years and since then the hiring has been dropping. There is not much new blood." "The average age here is about 42 now and increasing yearly," observes Valerie Sportsman, an EPA official in the regional office at Denver. "The major reason for the negative growth [in employees under age 35] is that the government has been very slow to hire new people," explains Tsapogas. "Also, the government is contracting out a lot more work." Furthermore, he adds, because DoD constitutes such a major proportion of the federal work force, "any cutbacks in this area tend to overpower the effects of hiring in others." But Sportsman and others also point out that the recent move to downsize agencies may actually stall this trend of aging the work force. For instance, she says, a decrease from 243 to 230 scientific employees in the Mountain region in 1993-94 occurred because of "flattening programs, such as early buyouts." "I suspect we may be showing a reverse trend in this case," NBS's Pulliam agrees. "The 5 percent decrease in NBS staff was primarily due to buyouts and early retirement of employees part of a conscious effort on our part to downsize the agency." The NSF report also shows a slow but steady rise in the employment rates for women and minorities, a conclusion in accordance with other surveys conducted during the same period (N. Sankaran, The Scientist, March 7, 1994, page 3). The NSF analysis data show that employment growth for women was about 28 percent in 1989-93, in contrast to a 2 percent increase for men during the same period. Among the ethnic minorities, the highest increase was seen among Native Americans: nearly 35 percent. "The growth of women and minorities is not an accident," declares Rich Lathrop, chief regional news officer for EPA at Denver. "This effort to encourage employment is true government-wide," observes Pulliam. "But I also think that the increase is reflective of the fact that more women and minorities are getting the right training." More information about the NSF special report and a copy of the Data Brief can be obtained by contacting John Tsapogas at NSF, Division of Science Resource Studies, 4201 Wilson Blvd., Suite 965, Arlington, Va. 22230; (703)306-1773; or by E-mail at srspubs@nsf.gov.

Growth In Federal Scientific Work Force In 1989-93 May Be Offset By Recent Cuts

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