Transmission electron micrograph of an influenza virus particleWIKIMEDIA, CYNTHIA GOLDSMITH, CDC/DR. ERSKINE L. PALMER, DR. M.L. MARTINWith flu season upon us in the Northern Hemisphere, the perennial game of flu forecasting—the effort to provide real-time and forward-looking estimates of influenza cases—is underway. And each year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) makes a competition of it, asking forecasting teams to come up with their best predictions for the timing, peak, and intensity of the season.
The CDC provides weekly surveillance data of confirmed flu and outpatient visits for influenza-like illnesses from public health and clinical laboratories around the nation. But these data lag behind real-time activity and not everyone who gets sick with the flu goes to the hospital. To advance flu forecasting efforts, the agency launched its first forecasting challenge during the 2013-2014 flu season with a first-place prize of $75,000. Since then, the monetary award has gone away, but teams have continued to participate for the honor of providing the most accurate forecast for the start of the flu season, how bad it will get over the course of the season, and when cases will peak.
For the last three flu seasons, Roni Rosenfeld’s team at Carnegie Mellon ...
