Illustration of a world map showing a truck going from the US to Mexico, a plane going from Europe to Mexico, and a pig surrounded by various viruses in Mexico
Infographic: How H1N1 Came to Spark a Pandemic in 2009
The pathogen known as swine flu evolved in pigs in Mexico following imports of the livestock from the US and Europe.
Infographic: How H1N1 Came to Spark a Pandemic in 2009
Infographic: How H1N1 Came to Spark a Pandemic in 2009

The pathogen known as swine flu evolved in pigs in Mexico following imports of the livestock from the US and Europe.

The pathogen known as swine flu evolved in pigs in Mexico following imports of the livestock from the US and Europe.

outbreak modeling
An illustration with a world map, pigs, and viruses
Timeline: Investigating the Origins of the 2009 Pandemic
Martha Nelson | Jan 4, 2022
Seven years of surveillance and research revealed the complex history of the H1N1 virus that leapt from pigs to humans and sparked the global swine flu outbreak.
Infographic: Meet R, the Shaky Metric Guiding Pandemic Forecasts
Katarina Zimmer | Jul 25, 2020
The basic reproductive R0, along with the more malleable effective reproduction number Re, are centerpieces of most epidemiological models that are informing government responses to COVID-19.
Why R0 Is Problematic for Predicting COVID-19 Spread
Katarina Zimmer | Jul 13, 2020
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has revealed the limitations of R0 as no other disease outbreak has before, at a time when policymakers need accurate forecasts.
Robert May, Theoretical Ecologist Who Advised UK Gov’t, Dies
Jef Akst | Apr 30, 2020
The Australian physicist-turned-biologist served as a top scientist in the UK government and president of the Royal Society, among other prestigious appointments.
coronavirus covid-19 sars-cov-2 modeling predictions projections when it will peak pandemic
Modelers Struggle to Predict the Future of the COVID-19 Pandemic
David Adam | Mar 12, 2020
Disease experts have largely focused on how we got to where we are now with coronavirus infections. Improved data collection and sharing can enhance projections of what’s to come.
a large, crowded waiting room
Person-to-Person Spread of Novel Coronavirus Confirmed in China
Shawna Williams | Jan 21, 2020
The number of cases spikes as the World Health Organization plans an emergency meeting on containing the epidemic.
Vaccine Exemptions May Allow for Large Measles Outbreaks
Abby Olena | Aug 21, 2019
Mathematical models reveal that current vaccination rates in Texas schools could pave the way for the virus to spread to hundreds of people.
Isolated Ebola Cases Hard to Diagnose, Go Undetected
Munyaradzi Makoni | Jun 18, 2019
Wide availability of infection control and diagnostic resources is required to control outbreaks early.
Waning Protection from Vaccination Explains Rise in Mumps Cases
Catherine Offord | Mar 22, 2018
A study finds that the vaccine’s effects wear off as a person ages, suggesting a need for booster shots.
Zika Update
Tanya Lewis | Jul 25, 2016
More than 1.5 million childbearing women could be at risk of infection; pregnancy delays may be insufficient to prevent infection-related birth abnormalities; second study shows low risk of international spread due to Olympics; CDC updates prevention recommendations
Model Predicts Zoonotic Hot Spots
Kerry Grens | May 19, 2015
The midwestern U.S. and central Asia are at high risk for new disease outbreaks from pathogen-bearing rodents, according to a study.
Social Data for Ebola Surveillance
Jyoti Madhusoodanan | Aug 26, 2014
Algorithms that map social media posts and mobile phone data can help researchers track epidemics.
DARPA Challenge to Predict Chikungunya Spread
Jyoti Madhusoodanan | Aug 18, 2014
Contest aims to identify models that accurately forecast outbreaks.