outbreak modeling

Seven years of surveillance and research revealed the complex history of the H1N1 virus that leapt from pigs to humans and sparked the global swine flu outbreak.

The basic reproductive R0, along with the more malleable effective reproduction number Re, are centerpieces of most epidemiological models that are informing government responses to COVID-19.

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has revealed the limitations of R0 as no other disease outbreak has before, at a time when policymakers need accurate forecasts.

The Australian physicist-turned-biologist served as a top scientist in the UK government and president of the Royal Society, among other prestigious appointments.

Disease experts have largely focused on how we got to where we are now with coronavirus infections. Improved data collection and sharing can enhance projections of what’s to come.

The number of cases spikes as the World Health Organization plans an emergency meeting on containing the epidemic.

Mathematical models reveal that current vaccination rates in Texas schools could pave the way for the virus to spread to hundreds of people.

Wide availability of infection control and diagnostic resources is required to control outbreaks early.

A study finds that the vaccine’s effects wear off as a person ages, suggesting a need for booster shots.

More than 1.5 million childbearing women could be at risk of infection; pregnancy delays may be insufficient to prevent infection-related birth abnormalities; second study shows low risk of international spread due to Olympics; CDC updates prevention recommendations

The midwestern U.S. and central Asia are at high risk for new disease outbreaks from pathogen-bearing rodents, according to a study.

Algorithms that map social media posts and mobile phone data can help researchers track epidemics.

Contest aims to identify models that accurately forecast outbreaks.