Climate Stirs Civil Conflict

Civil unrest is twice as likely during warm El Niño years.

Written byJef Akst
| 1 min read

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FLICKR, THE NATIONAL GUARD

El Niño years bring with them warmer temperatures, atypical precipitation patterns—and violence, according to a study published Wednesday (August 24) in Nature.

Heat has been linked to violent behaviors among individuals, and researchers have previously suggested that global climate changes may be at fault for specific outbreaks of violence, war, and civil unrest. But thus far, the evidence for such claims has been lacking.

Examining data on organized political violence in the tropics from 1950 to 2004, Solomon Hsiang and his colleagues found that hostility was more common during El Niño years than La Niña years, estimating that the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) could have influenced as many as 20 percent of civil conflicts in affected regions in the last 60 years. The authors hypothesize ...

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Meet the Author

  • Jef (an unusual nickname for Jennifer) got her master’s degree from Indiana University in April 2009 studying the mating behavior of seahorses. After four years of diving off the Gulf Coast of Tampa and performing behavioral experiments at the Tennessee Aquarium in Chattanooga, she left research to pursue a career in science writing. As The Scientist's managing editor, Jef edited features and oversaw the production of the TS Digest and quarterly print magazine. In 2022, her feature on uterus transplantation earned first place in the trade category of the Awards for Excellence in Health Care Journalism. She is a member of the National Association of Science Writers.

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