Climate Stirs Civil Conflict

Civil unrest is twice as likely during warm El Niño years.

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FLICKR, THE NATIONAL GUARD

El Niño years bring with them warmer temperatures, atypical precipitation patterns—and violence, according to a study published Wednesday (August 24) in Nature.

Heat has been linked to violent behaviors among individuals, and researchers have previously suggested that global climate changes may be at fault for specific outbreaks of violence, war, and civil unrest. But thus far, the evidence for such claims has been lacking.

Examining data on organized political violence in the tropics from 1950 to 2004, Solomon Hsiang and his colleagues found that hostility was more common during El Niño years than La Niña years, estimating that the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) could have influenced as many as 20 percent of civil conflicts in affected regions in the last 60 years. The authors hypothesize ...

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Meet the Author

  • Jef Akst

    Jef Akst was managing editor of The Scientist, where she started as an intern in 2009 after receiving a master’s degree from Indiana University in April 2009 studying the mating behavior of seahorses.
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