ISTOCK, TERO VESALAINENThanks to years of highly accurate flu forecasts, modelers have been able to tip off health advisors this year to an early peak in flu cases in the U.S. that may already be tapering off.
“Our early forecasts [in the fall] weren’t giving us much information on the timing or intensity of this season—they were just matching historic trends,” says epidemiologist and modeler Matthew Biggerstaff of the Influenza Division in the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). “But by the middle of December, we had good signals for an early season and can safely say now that we’ve confirmed this season started early and peaked early.”
Forecasts are giving us an 80 percent chance that we will see the peak before the end of January.—Matthew Biggerstaff,
CDC
Usually, the peak in the number of flu cases comes around February. This year’s forecasts are more closely matching the 2014-2015 season, which ...
