It’s So Hard to Know Who’s Dying of COVID-19—and When

It can take days for each death to be recorded in official statistics. “Nowcasting” estimates the actual occurrence of deaths, and the true peak of the pandemic.

David Adam
| 5 min read
nowcasting coronavirus pandemic covid-19 sars-cov-2 death data lag coroner

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Every day for seven weeks since the end of March, the British government published a comparison of COVID-19 deaths in different countries. Last week, it stopped. A government spokesperson claimed that’s because ministers “varied the content and format” of the information they present to the public, according to news reports. Critics point out this need for variety only arose after the line on the graph to indicate cumulative UK deaths climbed above that of every other European country.

According to the most recent tallies from May 12, 32,692 people in the UK had lost their lives to the disease. That compares with 30,911 in Italy, 26,920 in Spain, 26,643 in France, and 7,667 in Germany. In the United States the recorded toll on that date was 81,779 deaths.

You can draw some very misleading conclusions if you don’t take into account that most of the data ...

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