ISTOCKPHOTO.COM, NULLPLUS
In 2001, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Studies coordinated a 2-day terrorist attack simulation using the smallpox virus, called “Dark Winter.” The predicted result: up to one million people would die within weeks. Similarly, an analysis by the National Security Council in November 2009 estimated that a biological attack could leave “hundreds of thousands of people” at risk of death. Of course, all these estimates are iffy, and the CSIS-Johns Hopkins prediction in particular was based on a relatively high transmission rate of 10 new infections by each victim—a figure that depends on unpredictable factors such as the weather, time of year, social interactions, and each victim’s genetic makeup and health. Nevertheless, there is ...
