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Predicting Future Zoonotic Disease Outbreaks

A step-by-step study of diseases that jump species gives subtle clues about future epidemics.

Written byAshley Yeager
| 14 min read

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© GETTY IMAGES/STEPHEN ASHTON/EYEEMDown a dirt path outside of the village of Meliandou in Guinea once stood a tall, hollow tree where children used to play. Not anymore. This tree, now notorious as the potential starting point of the deadly Ebola outbreak that ripped through West Africa a few years ago, was burned after the disease sickened and killed hundreds of people over a four-month period. More than 10,000 ultimately succumbed to the disease between 2014 and 2016.

In April 2014, just a few months after the outbreak began, epidemiologist Fabian Leendertz of the Robert Koch Institute in Berlin and his colleagues went on a month-long expedition in southeastern Guinea to identify the source of the epidemic, which was suspected to have jumped from animals to humans. Fairly quickly, the team ruled out apes and other large animals as the zoonotic host for this Ebola outbreak. Numbers of grazing animals in West Africa appeared unaffected, and great ape populations may have actually increased, as the outbreak raced through Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia.

Another possibility that Leendertz and his team considered was bats. Local children commonly hunted the flying mammals, the scientists learned. In time, Meliandou villagers told Leendertz and his colleagues about ...

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Meet the Author

  • Ashley started at The Scientist in 2018. Before joining the staff, she worked as a freelance editor and writer, a writer at the Simons Foundation, and a web producer at Science News, among other positions. She holds a bachelor’s degree in journalism from the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, and a master’s degree in science writing from MIT. Ashley edits the Scientist to Watch and Profile sections of the magazine and writes news, features, and other stories for both online and print.

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