The Effects of Physical Isolation on the Pandemic Quantified

Social distancing measures are based on limited data. As much of the world remains stuck in lockdown, researchers are trying to measure the benefits.

David Adam
| 5 min read
coronavirus covid-19 shelter in place stay at home social distancing physical isolation modeling

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ABOVE: A playground in Maumee, Ohio, where the governor’s stay-at-home order went into effect March 23
SHAWNA WILLIAMS

In July 2008, some 400 young people from the Solomon Islands visited Sydney, Australia, for a Catholic youth festival. Short on accommodations—the week-long event drew 223,000 pilgrims from across the world—the Solomon Islanders bedded down in the cavernous gym of a local school. Within days, a spate of fever, headaches, and coughing fits signaled to organizers that they had a serious problem. An influenza outbreak had ripped through the closely quartered group, eventually making more than one-fourth of them unwell.

A large group of Australians were also staying at the school and passing around the virus. But far fewer of them became ill—just 27 of the 255. What protected them?

In turned out the Australians had slept in groups of eight, each isolated in their own classroom.

Health officials treated everyone and mopped ...

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