Repeated El Niño Events Could Spark Big Ecological Shifts

Five major El Niño events per century could lead to fewer fishes that thrive in cold water and more terrestrial birds in eastern coastal ecosystems.

Written byMargaret Osborne
| 5 min read
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As climate change continues to intensify, some scientists predict La Niña and El Niño events, opposing climate patterns that recur in the Pacific Ocean, will become stronger and more frequent, leading to shifting hurricane patterns, flooding, and droughts. Already this century, the Earth is on track for a “triple dip” of three consecutive La Niña events, which researchers say may worsen drought in the Horn of Africa and southern South America, and lead to increased rainfall in Southeast Asia and Australasia. How exactly these more intense events will affect life on Earth in the future is unknown, but researchers at the University of Utah are looking to the past for answers.

In a study published September 8 in Science, the team used animal fossils and human artifacts from the past 12,000 years to identify an “ecological tipping point” of five moderate-to-strong El Niño events in eastern coastal ecosystems—that is, after ...

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  • Margaret Osborne

    Margaret Osborne is a freelance science journalist based in the Southwestern US. Her work has been published in Smithsonian magazine and Sag Harbor Express and has aired on WSHU Public Radio. She has a degree in journalism from Stony Brook University.

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