Q&A: New Tool Ranks Viruses by Their Risk of Jumping to Humans

Researchers involved in a long-term project to identify viruses of concern have now assessed the risk factors that could help forecast which pathogens are the most likely to spillover from wildlife to people.

Written byJef Akst

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Well before the world began grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers were already looking out for potential outbreaks from emerging diseases—and trying to stop them. A major hurdle in doing so is understanding which viruses in animals are most likely to make the jump to people. A new, interactive web-based tool, published April 5 in PNAS, uses 32 risk factors and data on more than 500,000 samples taken from nearly 75,000 animals, along with public records of virus detections in wildlife, to rank the chances of spillover among 887 viruses.

Project leader Jonna Mazet, an epidemiologist and disease ecologist at the University of California, Davis’s School of Veterinary Medicine, spoke with The Scientist about the “SpillOver” tool that she and her collaborators developed.

Jonna Mazet: For more than a decade, I have been the PI and leader of the PREDICT Consortium, which is a very large ...

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Meet the Author

Jef Akst
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Jef (an unusual nickname for Jennifer) got her master’s degree from Indiana University in April 2009 studying the mating behavior of seahorses. After four years of diving off the Gulf Coast of Tampa and performing behavioral experiments at the Tennessee Aquarium in Chattanooga, she left research to pursue a career in science writing. As The Scientist's managing editor, Jef edited features and oversaw the production of the TS Digest and quarterly print magazine. In 2022, her feature on uterus transplantation earned first place in the trade category of the Awards for Excellence in Health Care Journalism. She is a member of the National Association of Science Writers.
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